As Genesee County moves into its first week of a Phase One reopening from a pandemic lockdown, Public Health Director Paul Pettit said it's reasonable to expect to see more positive COVID-19 cases reported, both because of an increase in testing, and because people will be in contact with each other.
But positive cases are not the key metric to monitor, Pettit said. What he and government officials will watch is the availability of hospital beds. Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants to maintain a 30-percent capacity available at hospitals.
With hospitals now permitted to perform elective procedures, there are fewer beds available than when those procedures were prohibited, Pettit indicated.
"A lot of the indicators aren't really directly honing in on a specific number of cases or a number of positives," Pettit said. "They're really honing on our regional capacity to deal with them. A lot of it's focused on hospitalization, ICU beds, number of available beds. Those types of criteria are a more important indicator of how we can handle and respond to the most vulnerable populations because again, our immune-compromised, those with underlying health issues, need hospital beds, need higher levels of care. That's going to be our issue."
Continued acceptable hospital capacity in the Finger Lakes Region will be a key indicator as New York becomes unpaused for each phase of the reopening.
To keep that number low, Pettit said, people need to continue to take all necessary precautions against spreading the disease.
"It is expected we're going to see an increased number of cases, but we need to do our best to continue to try to keep them low," Pettit said. "Make sure we're practicing our social distancing, and hopefully not have spike rates in severe cases that are going to impact our health system."
Unpausing New York is expected to happen in four phases by region:
Phase One:
- Construction
- Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
- Retail -- (Limited to curbside or in-store pickup or drop off)
- Manufacturing
- Wholesale Trade
Phase Two:
- Professional Services
- Retail
- Administrative Support
- Real Estate / Rental & Leasing
Phase Three:
- Restaurants / Food Services
Phase Four:
- Arts / Entertainment / Recreation
- Education
The Finger Lakes Region is one of the first regions in the state to enter Phase One, and while each phase is generally expected to take four weeks, there is already talk of Finger Lakes entering Phase Two on May 29, Pettit indicated.
While experts debate just how many COVID-19 tests need to be administered on a daily basis to help control the spread of the disease in an open economy, there is consensus that a lot of testing is needed.
Petit expressed concern that there are not enough tests available in Genesee County to meet our needs. That means only people who meet the criteria for testing, such as close-contact with a positive case or a vulnerable person who is symptomatic, can get tests locally. However, he noted, there is an ample supply of tests available in Monroe County and local residents who want a test without meeting that criteria can drive to testing locations in the Rochester area.
The health director does have more confidence in the local capacity to handle contact tracing when a positive case is identified, which is another key strategy in helping to control outbreaks. Pettit said if there is a local spike in cases, New York has additional contract tracing resources local health officials can summon.
He also noted, for anybody looking for a job, that the state is looking to hire more contract tracers.
For those expecting a lull in the disease spread during the summer, before a resurgence in the fall, Pettit suggested we not count on much of a lull but expect a second wave in the fall or winter.
"When you look at the data in the Southern Hemisphere, which have been inverted with their summer, they still had a lot of cases," Pettit said. "They still had a lot of transmissions. So it's really hard to say how that's going to play out for us locally here in the summer, when that the warmer weather comes along. That's why we're really stressing the importance of making sure we stick with the guidelines. We don't want to see those spikes."
The seasonality of COVID-19, or lack of it, is just one of the things that are still unknown about the novel coronavirus.
"There's a lot to be learned about this virus, (there) is a lot that we're trying to understand as we move forward in time," Pettit said. "We obviously can only implement and act the way we're able to based on the knowledge that we have. So the best thing we can do is encourage folks to continue to practice social distancing and do their best to protect others by protecting themselves."
