If you’re breathing a little easier with the downgraded air quality levels of late, Derek Mallia, assistant professor of atmospheric science at the University of Utah, has projections that may give pause for celebration.
Although the worst may be over, as far as high levels of the particulate matter 2.5 are concerned, this region is not out of the woods just yet. So to speak.
“It could be a very intermittent, kind of smoky summer for areas in New York,” Mallia said during a phone interview Friday from Utah with The Batavian.
In addition to his professional interests in fire and the correlation between land and atmospheric impacts, Mallia is from the Schenectady area with family still there, so he has preserved a keen interest in how Canadian wildfires are affecting this region.
The smoky skies are the result of easterly winds — “any wind out of the west will probably give you some smoke through summer … that could be through July or August,” he said — versus when southerly winds blow, the temperatures will be hotter but with less smoke in the air, he said.
Wildfires in Alberta — which have really just begun to flare up, are not going to be as diluted as in past years, he said. This is earlier for Canada’s wildfires, which, combined with the wind flow, is why they are more noticeable and causing more air quality issues.
"The good news is that the winds will be more out of the West in the coming week or so. And so that's a good thing in that you won't be getting the smoke as much from Northern Quebec, but the wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia, so that's gonna be like Western Canada. Those fires, which kind of died down because they had a lot of rain a couple of weeks ago, that kind of slowed down those fires, but things are getting dragged in there. And so those fires are really starting to really start pumping, really starting to grow. So they're producing a lot more smoke than they were like a week ago,” he said. “And so long story short, what I would say is because there's so many areas in Canada that are burning, it could be a very intermittent, kind of smoky summer for areas in New York. Because there's so much fire activity in Canada right now, anyone that's out of the west or the Northwest, or what our north will probably give you some smoke. So that's my longer-term kind of projection of what summer could look like in upstate New York right now.”
Before proceeding, The Batavian asked Mallia to clarify something for all of those naysayers that have posted comments online that this is just a “Canadian campfire” or no different than the good ol’ days when smoking was allowed in bars. Are they right?
As far as the pollutants, there isn’t much difference between a wildfire and a campfire, he said. They both put out similar particulates into the air. However, there is one major disparity.
“If you really think about it deeply, it’s the same kind of smoke, right? And it's certainly not any different. The difference, though, is, if you're sitting by a campfire, you're probably sitting next to it for what, maybe an hour at most. And you may or may not be in the smoke, and you move yourself out of the smoke. So that's number one,” he said. “Number two, a lot of people are doing their jobs outside, and they're actually moving around in the smoke. When you're at a campfire, you're probably not exercising a ton, so you're not inhaling as deeply. So that's the other thing. I mean, if you're not sick, and you’re in campfire smoke for long enough, though, you would probably start developing asthma and stuff. But I mean, if we're sitting in a campfire smoke for, you know, hours upon hours, yeah, you're gonna feel your lungs, you're gonna start feeling tired. And I think a lot of people don't realize that probably because they're having fun and enjoying the campfire. But they're not thinking about, well, maybe I'm sitting in smoke for a long period of time, like my lungs will actually start hurting, but they're not thinking about that because they're having a good time.”
So take that wildfire smoke — that smoke plume over a good chunk of the Northeast — and you can't really get away from it, he said, other than to go into your house.
“But a lot of people don't have good filtration systems; a lot of that smoke actually gets into their homes, especially in the Northeast, where a lot of those homes are older,” he said.
That's a difference where it may behoove people to take some precautions when the air quality gets to a level of concern. Yes, N95 masks can help filter out that small particulate matter, and air conditioning and air purifiers with air filters can also help to clean out the air in one’s home, he said.
Although an article in The NY Times had also suggested using fans to circulate the indoor air, he didn’t agree with that remedy, since it just “spreads the same air around.” You may also want to change air filters more regularly, he said.
Cautioning that he isn’t a medical doctor and therefore wasn’t dispensing actual medical-related advice, Mallia was certain that on that Wednesday a week ago when this region suffered from air quality readings of more than 150, which hit the warning level, “no one should have been outside.”
People that are generally in good condition and not suffering from cardiovascular or respiratory conditions should be fine with short-term exposure to wildfire air exposure. That naturally led The Batavian to ask, with climate change and wildfires not likely to go away and quite possibly increase, what about long-term exposure?
Mallia is hoping to answer that in the near future. He and fellow researchers in Utah are investigating whether wildfires in the future will impact the air quality in the Northeast United States. They have applied to NASA for grant funding to study this very issue.
“That's actually a great science question, we have something that we're trying to actually look at right now. Over the past 20 to 25 years, air quality has actually gotten better across the eastern U.S. during the summertime. And it's gotten worse in the Western U.S. The driver behind that has been more wildfires across the West. But we're starting to look at this now in that okay, well, fires continue to get worse. Will that trend of air quality getting better across the eastern U.S. continue? And we're hypothesizing that no, due to climate change, with bigger fires, that areas across the East we might see more exposure to wildfire smoke, the fires are getting bigger, they're emitting more smoke, they're also doing something, what we refer to as pyro cumulus nimbus class.
"So if a fire gets hot enough, or burns enough nap or smoke matter, it can actually create thunderstorms over the fire. And so why this is relevant is that this can actually help inject the smoke further up into the atmosphere. And if it gets injected further up in the atmosphere, it increases the likelihood that smoke gets injected into the jet stream. And that will increase the geographical coverage of the smoke and, therefore, a big fire that's burning," he said. "And let's say California, or the state of Washington, that increases the likelihood that that smoke might make it all the way to somewhere like, let's say, upstate New York, for example. And so, we do believe that it is possible that the Eastern U.S. could see worse air quality during the summertime due to wildfires. So that is definitely a scientific question that I'm interested in answering.”
When growing up in New York, he had the “weather bug,” he said, with a dream to become a meteorologist, and when pursuing his bachelor’s in atmospheric sciences at the University of Albany, he was studying snowstorms, since wildfires were not “a big thing” at the time. He went on to obtain his Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah in 2018.
“But then I ended up getting an opportunity to do my Ph.D. out west, and it wasn't wildfire smoke, which is a direction that I'd never really kind of foresaw that I would do. And back in 2010, wildfire smoke was, you know, it was a thing, but it wasn't that big of a thing. And it's kind of blown up into this really massive thing that people are really interested in,” he said. “This is something I’m really passionate about. Personally, I’ve always been fascinated by meteorology, wildfires and air quality. And so I’m just trying to improve the way that we kind of forecast these things, and projecting these impacts has been kind of a personal interest. It just happens to also be my job.”
