It should be noted that Hochul was trailing Corwin by a good margin.
Within a 30 minute time, Hochul overtook Corwin. That's not normal. That big of a swing that quickly just doesn't normally happen in our polls.
There's an irregularity here, but I'm not sure of the cause. Since I no longer have a paid account with Poll Daddy, I can't do an IP address look up to check for multiple votes. I find no evidence through various search of an outside site urging votes for Hochul.
Hochul might be out-polling registration now, but we don't know if it a "bump" due to her being the new candidate.
Bellavia being behind Davis is not a surprise since Bellavia still does not have high name recognition compared to a guy who has already run numerous times.
I can't wait for Corwin's army of lawyers to descend on Albany tommorow for petition challenges. Davis said on Facebook that he submitted 12,0000 signatures. Knowing Davis, he probably got all of them outside a grocery store in Pennsylvania.
Bea,
You should be use to being wrong by now. I voted for Bellavia.
As for pulling for Corwin, even you should know that usually when a new person is nominated they get a bump in polls. That's why I'd like to see one in about 30 days.
A conservative vote for anybody but Bellavia is compromising the platform in order to gain the seat, I'm not doing it. Sending in my petition sheet for David with a bunch of Conservatives who agree.
Speaking of Davis, there were several gentlemen collecting signatures for him in Leroy, on St Patty's day. As I was walking past the Eagle, on my way to school to get the kids, he asked me to sign a petition for Jack Davis. I politely declined. I was asked by a second guy in front of the library, declined, then was asked twice more as I walked west back on Main St, by the first guy. I think he was drunk.
There's lots of ways to look at Democrats pushing people to the site to vote on the poll.
One is: Hey, great for traffic.
Another is, distorts the vote.
The easy answer to that, a Republican post to FB.
On my previous not about irregularities, I was more interested in seeing if a predominately and heavily followed Democrat site was pushing people to the site, especially out-of-the-area people.
This poll isn't scientific.
No one post on FB is going to have as much of an impact as a post on one of the big name Democratic (or Republican) blogs.
John, I'm sure that you understand that campaigns are about buzz, especially in such a condensed election season. I'm proud of our Democratic candidate and I'm proud to promote her and I'm going to keep promoting her until May 24th. I've put up quite a few links since Saturday so that maybe a few of my friends will take a look and want to learn more about her and possibly vote for her in May. I'm probably driving just as many of my Republican and Conservative friends to come here to vote for Corwin, Davis, or Bellavia.
And actually John, most people don't even pay attention and are waiting for Charlie Sheen to act up again or waiting to vote for their favorite American Idol. There's no Democratic conspiracy here, as much as you would like to think there is. You should promote your favorite candidate. I would hit the "like" button no matter who it was.
Kathy is very popular in Erie county. She's also a very nice lady and no push over. That mudslinging Corwin better have deep pockets like her brother, Crazy Jack.
You're right Charlie. Kathy Hochul is a political rock star. I don't know how true this is because I haven't done a search of the Erie County results, but someone told me when she won by 80% last November that she won every town in Erie County. That's a lot of cross over appeal. Some of those towns are just as conservative as Genesee County.
"Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!"
Gee, do you think she was driving people to the wben site?
As of 10:43pm
WBEN
Who would get your vote in the 26th Congressional special election?
David Bellavia 121 Votes ( 6% )
Jane Corwin 811 Votes ( 41% )
Jack Davis 92 Votes ( 5% )
Kathy Hochul 877 Votes ( 45% )
Other 62 Votes ( 3% )
Total Votes: 1963
TheBatavian:
If the election were held today in the NY-26, who would you vote for?
Jane Corwin 26.43% (226 votes)
Kathy Hochul 29.01% (248 votes)
Ian Murphy 0.47% (4 votes)
David Bellavia 10.29% (88 votes)
Jack Davis 8.89% (76 votes)
Undecided 13.45% (115 votes)
I won't vote 11.46% (98 votes)
Total Votes: 855
Chris,
Yes. When either side, or in this case, both sides, do it, it gives even more unreliable results. Like Howard said, this is not a scientific poll already. These party efforts make it even less so.
John,
Did you troll the Republican site too or just the Democrat site on FB? You only reported that people were talking about it on the Democrat site.
Why would it make it less reliable than knocking on doors and asking for support. It is an electronic age. The polls are generated on a website. It may not be scientific, but it certainly is a mirror on the day.
By the way, I looked back to four weeks ago and still can't find where I made Corwin's economic status an issue..or called her evil for her good fortune.
Bea, it actually isn't on our public committee facebook page. I put up a link for my friends on my private FB page.
I guess John thinks that I should stop talking to friends on FB about this race. Maybe he thinks we should hide our candidate under a rock until the election is over. I told him he could unfriend me if my content about Kathy Hochul bothers him.
And Chris is right. Both sides drive people to opinion polls. In this case while Kathy Hochul was out doing interviews, answering tough questions and talking about her record and the issues, Jane was asking people to vote for her on facebook.
I think he is whistling in the dark, trying to start something that isn't there.
John went to bed on 3/20 and saw one poll up.
Then he went to the Democrat site sometime on 3/21 and after supper on 3/21 announced that they are requesting votes.
Corwin was asking long before that. Why not announce that both sites were asking for support?
Posted by John Roach on March 21, 2011 - 6:17pm
The Democrats have a Facebook request for votes now.
Copied at 8:15am Tuesday 3/22 - Note she put this up 23 hours ago. So at 9:15am yesterday morning this notice was up.
Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!
23 hours ago · View Feedback (8)Hide Feedback (8) ·
One other thing I noticed is that Corwin seemed to ignore the poll here on The Batavian. Her communications director has already made a misstep or two and ignoring the large Republican base out here could be another one. I have a feeling that Genesee County is going to be Bellavia territory.
Conservatives out here, at least the ones that regularly post on this site, have been begging for an independent conservative candidate for as long as I can remember. I don't agree with Bellavia's politics, but I get the feeling he's a man who stands on his principles. That's going to go a long way in the rural areas of the district.
Chris, is it the cut in spending, or is it the no new taxes that you don't agree with? An independent would be fantastic, but you and I both know that the deep pockets are going to win. With that being said, "Bellavia for Congress".
And everyone falls in line
And everyone falls in line with their respective parties.
Hochul is definitely
Hochul is definitely out-polling the registration numbers for this area. Interesting.
It should be noted that
It should be noted that Hochul was trailing Corwin by a good margin.
Within a 30 minute time, Hochul overtook Corwin. That's not normal. That big of a swing that quickly just doesn't normally happen in our polls.
There's an irregularity here, but I'm not sure of the cause. Since I no longer have a paid account with Poll Daddy, I can't do an IP address look up to check for multiple votes. I find no evidence through various search of an outside site urging votes for Hochul.
Hope they do this poll again
Hope they do this poll again in about 30 days.
Hochul might be out-polling registration now, but we don't know if it a "bump" due to her being the new candidate.
Bellavia being behind Davis is not a surprise since Bellavia still does not have high name recognition compared to a guy who has already run numerous times.
Just for the record Howard, I
Just for the record Howard, I didn't vote. I have no dog in this fight.
I can't wait for Corwin's
I can't wait for Corwin's army of lawyers to descend on Albany tommorow for petition challenges. Davis said on Facebook that he submitted 12,0000 signatures. Knowing Davis, he probably got all of them outside a grocery store in Pennsylvania.
Corwin is ahead again. I
Corwin is ahead again. I guess the irregularity took care of itself.
Bea, You should be use to
Bea,
You should be use to being wrong by now. I voted for Bellavia.
As for pulling for Corwin, even you should know that usually when a new person is nominated they get a bump in polls. That's why I'd like to see one in about 30 days.
The stats here hold up fairly
The stats here hold up fairly well to the wben poll from today:
http://www.wben.com/pages/1553403.php
The most disturbing thing
The most disturbing thing about that poll has nothing to do with how many votes the reps or dems received, its the 74 "I wont vote's" Grrrrrrrrr
A conservative vote for
A conservative vote for anybody but Bellavia is compromising the platform in order to gain the seat, I'm not doing it. Sending in my petition sheet for David with a bunch of Conservatives who agree.
Better get it to him fast,
Better get it to him fast, Jeff. The deadline is tonight or tomorrow and they have to be in Albany.
Thanks Chris
Thanks Chris
Speaking of Davis, there were
Speaking of Davis, there were several gentlemen collecting signatures for him in Leroy, on St Patty's day. As I was walking past the Eagle, on my way to school to get the kids, he asked me to sign a petition for Jack Davis. I politely declined. I was asked by a second guy in front of the library, declined, then was asked twice more as I walked west back on Main St, by the first guy. I think he was drunk.
The Democrats have a Facebook
The Democrats have a Facebook request for votes now.
There's lots of ways to look
There's lots of ways to look at Democrats pushing people to the site to vote on the poll.
One is: Hey, great for traffic.
Another is, distorts the vote.
The easy answer to that, a Republican post to FB.
On my previous not about irregularities, I was more interested in seeing if a predominately and heavily followed Democrat site was pushing people to the site, especially out-of-the-area people.
This poll isn't scientific.
No one post on FB is going to have as much of an impact as a post on one of the big name Democratic (or Republican) blogs.
One would have to be drunk to
One would have to be drunk to be pandering for Jack Davis.
John, I'm sure that you
John, I'm sure that you understand that campaigns are about buzz, especially in such a condensed election season. I'm proud of our Democratic candidate and I'm proud to promote her and I'm going to keep promoting her until May 24th. I've put up quite a few links since Saturday so that maybe a few of my friends will take a look and want to learn more about her and possibly vote for her in May. I'm probably driving just as many of my Republican and Conservative friends to come here to vote for Corwin, Davis, or Bellavia.
And actually John, most people don't even pay attention and are waiting for Charlie Sheen to act up again or waiting to vote for their favorite American Idol. There's no Democratic conspiracy here, as much as you would like to think there is. You should promote your favorite candidate. I would hit the "like" button no matter who it was.
Hey John, Jane Corwin herself
Hey John, Jane Corwin herself directed everyone to the wben poll today and she's still down in that one by 4% Here's the link:
http://www.facebook.com/JaneCorwin
I was going to pop a screenshot up here but I'm having a bit of trouble shrinking it properly.
Still grumpy about the Dems directing people to polls?
Kathy is very popular in Erie
Kathy is very popular in Erie county. She's also a very nice lady and no push over. That mudslinging Corwin better have deep pockets like her brother, Crazy Jack.
You're right Charlie. Kathy
You're right Charlie. Kathy Hochul is a political rock star. I don't know how true this is because I haven't done a search of the Erie County results, but someone told me when she won by 80% last November that she won every town in Erie County. That's a lot of cross over appeal. Some of those towns are just as conservative as Genesee County.
"Jane Corwin WBEN currently
"Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!"
Gee, do you think she was driving people to the wben site?
As of 10:43pm WBEN Who would
As of 10:43pm
WBEN
Who would get your vote in the 26th Congressional special election?
David Bellavia 121 Votes ( 6% )
Jane Corwin 811 Votes ( 41% )
Jack Davis 92 Votes ( 5% )
Kathy Hochul 877 Votes ( 45% )
Other 62 Votes ( 3% )
Total Votes: 1963
TheBatavian:
If the election were held today in the NY-26, who would you vote for?
Jane Corwin 26.43% (226 votes)
Kathy Hochul 29.01% (248 votes)
Ian Murphy 0.47% (4 votes)
David Bellavia 10.29% (88 votes)
Jack Davis 8.89% (76 votes)
Undecided 13.45% (115 votes)
I won't vote 11.46% (98 votes)
Total Votes: 855
Chris, Yes. When either side,
Chris,
Yes. When either side, or in this case, both sides, do it, it gives even more unreliable results. Like Howard said, this is not a scientific poll already. These party efforts make it even less so.
John, Did you troll the
John,
Did you troll the Republican site too or just the Democrat site on FB? You only reported that people were talking about it on the Democrat site.
Why would it make it less reliable than knocking on doors and asking for support. It is an electronic age. The polls are generated on a website. It may not be scientific, but it certainly is a mirror on the day.
By the way, I looked back to four weeks ago and still can't find where I made Corwin's economic status an issue..or called her evil for her good fortune.
Bea, Because before I went to
Bea,
Because before I went to bed, only a local Dem had a poll request up. Please read what I said, I don't support either party doing it.
John, gaming online polls is
John, gaming online polls is standard procedure. I just thought it was funny that you seemed so shocked and appalled.
Bea, it actually isn't on our
Bea, it actually isn't on our public committee facebook page. I put up a link for my friends on my private FB page.
I guess John thinks that I should stop talking to friends on FB about this race. Maybe he thinks we should hide our candidate under a rock until the election is over. I told him he could unfriend me if my content about Kathy Hochul bothers him.
And Chris is right. Both sides drive people to opinion polls. In this case while Kathy Hochul was out doing interviews, answering tough questions and talking about her record and the issues, Jane was asking people to vote for her on facebook.
I think he is whistling in
I think he is whistling in the dark, trying to start something that isn't there.
John went to bed on 3/20 and saw one poll up.
Then he went to the Democrat site sometime on 3/21 and after supper on 3/21 announced that they are requesting votes.
Corwin was asking long before that. Why not announce that both sites were asking for support?
Posted by John Roach on March 21, 2011 - 6:17pm
The Democrats have a Facebook request for votes now.
Copied at 8:15am Tuesday 3/22 - Note she put this up 23 hours ago. So at 9:15am yesterday morning this notice was up.
Jane Corwin
WBEN currently has a poll on their website asking who you will support for the 26th Congressional District. Can you visit www.wben.com and cast your vote of support? Thanks!
23 hours ago · View Feedback (8)Hide Feedback (8) ·
One other thing I noticed is
One other thing I noticed is that Corwin seemed to ignore the poll here on The Batavian. Her communications director has already made a misstep or two and ignoring the large Republican base out here could be another one. I have a feeling that Genesee County is going to be Bellavia territory.
Conservatives out here, at least the ones that regularly post on this site, have been begging for an independent conservative candidate for as long as I can remember. I don't agree with Bellavia's politics, but I get the feeling he's a man who stands on his principles. That's going to go a long way in the rural areas of the district.
Chris, is it the cut in
Chris, is it the cut in spending, or is it the no new taxes that you don't agree with? An independent would be fantastic, but you and I both know that the deep pockets are going to win. With that being said, "Bellavia for Congress".
It's his stance on non-fiscal
It's his stance on non-fiscal matters that I disagree with.
Bea, I told you, I didn't see
Bea,
I told you, I didn't see the Corwin site. But that's not the point is it? The point is that both sides were trying to do it.
And try hard to remember, I am not supporting Corwin.
Yes, John, both sides were
Yes, John, both sides were doing it, and it's not a big deal unless you think non-scientific online polls are serious business.