I shot the video this morning and just happened to catch a single lightning bolt and a little thunder.
The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for this afternoon at 12:10 p.m. and then canceled the warning at 12:35 p.m. A thunderstorm watch remains in place. The watch extends until 7 p.m. (meaning, the bad weather, we hope, will pass in time for Muckdogs baseball at Dwyer and the Ghost Riders at Jackson St. Square.)
UPDATE: The severe thunderstorm warning for Western New York was cancelled by the National Weather Service:
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE...SOUTH CENTRAL GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
AT 233 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.
See the gathering dark clouds? The National Weather Service says that's the front of a severe thunderstorm about to hit Genesee County, and they make the warning fairly ominous:
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
As I write, I see lightening to the northwest.
Here's the rest of the alert:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 215 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK
* UNTIL 230 PM EDT
* AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF AKRON TO ORCHARD PARK TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DERBY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... MARILLA...ORCHARD PARK AND ALDEN BY 220 PM EDT... DERBY...DARIEN AND HAMBURG BY 225 PM EDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.
It feels more like October than May. Looking out at the cars in the parking lot, I see frost on the windows.
The pollen count was high all weekend. It was common to run into people with running eyes and noses. As uncomfortable as the pollen makes us, I have to admit that spring is always glorious. The colors of the buds, the flowers blooming, the grass is green and there is hope for a nice summer.
I even noticed one farm where they have completed their first cutting of hay. The windrows raked into long straight lines appeared to be the epitome of spring...renewal of the land. I also noticed a farm stand selling asparagus for $2 a bunch. The stand was empty, had we passed it earlier in the day, I would have bought some.
Remember when your kids were young and you had to think of things to amuse them on a long ride? The kids are long grown, but I still find myself mentally playing the games that occupied their time. Bury the cow was a favorite. It started quite simply...you get points for each herd of cows you found on your side of the car. If we passed a cemetery and it was on your side, you lost your cows. As the kids got older the game became more complex. How many cows constitutes a 'herd'? If a fence divides cows on the same farm, does each pasture count as one point or does the farm just count as one point? I smile as I pass Lamb's and imagine the discussion that would go on in the back of the car.
There's still a chance of snow in our immediate future, with light snow predicted for this morning and a chance of snow on Friday. It looks like it we will have cold nights, mild to cold days the rest of the week.
Here's the National Weather Service forecast:
Today: Scattered snow showers, mixing with rain after noon, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a west wind between 16 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind between 6 and 13 mph.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 48. West wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 3 and 8 mph.
Friday: A chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. East wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow before 10pm, then a slight chance of snow between 10pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
I stopped in LeRoy today and spotted this scene and snapped a quick pic -- snow in LeRoy in April.
So what do you think about the out-of-season snow fall? It looks like we will get a little more this morning:
... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THIS SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO... IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING SNOW. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT... THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
We received this advisory this morning:
... WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH... AND CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANGE TO WET SNOW WILL INITIALLY TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF BUFFALO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN THE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FOR SITES ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HILLTOPS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED.
THIS OUT OF SEASON SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SO MUNICIPALITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LATE WINTER CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
... SIGNIFICANT OUT OF SEASON SNOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
.DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AT DAYBREAK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY... THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CHANGE OUR RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA.
THE WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS AS A RESULT... WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL BEING FOUND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT... EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE UPCOMING HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW. UNLIKE THE OCTOBER 2006 EVENT WHERE FOLIATED TREES CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGH IMPACT... THE REGION IS FORTUNATE THAT OUR GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO BEGIN.
You thought the last of Winter might be slipping away, well get ready for another big snow storm. We just received this advisory:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH... THEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATING WET SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA WHERE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS OUT OF SEASON SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... SO MUNICIPALITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LATE WINTER CONDITIONS..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
... SIGNIFICANT OUT OF SEASON SNOWS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
..LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY MONDAY. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA.
AS THE VERY DEEP STORM SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON TUESDAY... UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT... EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. SINCE LAKE ERIE IS NOW GENERALLY ICE FREE... THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WELL SOUTH OF BUFFALO.
THE UPCOMING HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UNLIKE THE OCT 2006 EVENT WHERE FOLIATED TREES CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGH IMPACT... THE REGION IS FORTUNATE THAT OUR GROWING SEASON HAS YET TO BEGIN..
We are ready for spring: Everytime I drive past this sign outside the Ace Hardware on Route 19 in LeRoy, I wonder: Is the store saying,"We've got all the products you'll need this spring -- we're ready for you"? Or, are they saying, "Man, glad winter's over!"? Or both?
I've been getting these "extreme cold" e-mail alerts from Weather.com and when I open them the predicted temperature is something like 22 degrees.
After some of the below-zero frigidity we went through the past few months, it's hard to get much concerned about 22 degrees.
Here's the weather forecast for the next 24 hours. Yes, it will get cold -- one last wintry blast, I suppose. There might even be some snow.
Stay safe and stay warm.
The recent rain which has caused some flooding in Genesee County is expected to continue today, according to the National Weather Service.
There is also a wind advisory in effect until 8 p.m.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 517 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009 NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-120930- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 517 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.
The National Weather Service has issued a third flood warning for the Batavia and LeRoy areas.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT * UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. * AT 11 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. * FORECAST... THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACT... AT 7.0 FEET... MODERATE FLOOD... WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.
The warning also issues the following warnings:
BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
We could see as much as five inches pile up by dinner time tonight. The National Weather Service out of Buffalo has issued a lake effect snow advisory for the region until 6 o'clock this evening. From the advisory:
Bands of lake effect snow will persist through the day. New accumulations in the most persistent bands will be in the 3 to 5 inch range. Brisk west to northwest winds will also lead to areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities.
In lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be travelling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions.
There's not much to see out on the radar so far.
However, things look a little greasy out on the Thruway.
An ice damn that formed on Oatka Creek caused some flooding in the Village of Le Roy, according to a report on the R-News Web site.
LeRoy Fire Chief Bill Wood told R-News that crews spent the day pumping water from basements along Munson Street.
There were also problems with the sewer system, according to the report, but those issues have been cleared up.
No word on an estimated amount of damage to any property.
We may be in the clear for any further threats of severe wind damage for Genesee County, but Batavia is still under watch for a flooding of Tonawanda Creek. This is a clip of the roiling creek that looked set to swell up and over its banks earlier this afternoon out back of the county court house.
From the National Weather Service:
The flood warning continues for the Tonawanda Creek at Batavia until Friday afternoon. At 12:00 p.m. Thursday, the stage was 9.5 feet and rising. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 9.0 feet. Forecast: The river will continue to rise and crest near 9.8 feet this evening. Impact: At 10.0 feet, moderate flood, minor to moderate flooding along the entire reach from Batavia to Tonawanda, most focused in Alabama swamps, rapids and northern Clarence and Amherst, and also in the city of Batavia, west of Main Street.
On the wind advisory:
Southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph this afternoon could gust over 45 mph. The greatest chance for the higher gusts will be found over elevated terrain. These winds will become more westerly during the course of this afternoon before diminishing late in the day.
While the threat of widespread wind damage has diminished, shallow rooted trees, namely pines, will still be vulnerable in this event as their shallow root system has become less stable with the thawing of the previously frozen ground. Scattered power outages will still be possible from downed tree limbs and power lines.
Roads around Genesee County are getting ever worse throughout the day today. Snow and rain have added to the already bloated mix of melted ice and snow from yesterday. Some roads are barely navigable at this time. Add to that the winds that are bringing down power lines across the region, and you've got a messy situation out there.
In the past half hour, we've heard of two reports of downed wires over the scanner.
Poles and wires have come down on Molasses Hill Road near Chaddock Road in Alexander. Another pole along with wires are blocking a roadway in Attica. We haven't yet got the report on that exact location, but crews are out trying to get things cleaned up as quickly as possible.
Conditions are even worse in Wyoming County, where the winds are whipping even more fiercely. Dan Fischer reports that the office of emergency management there has put out a general travel advisory for motorists. It reads: "Caution should be used when traveling in Wyoming Co. due to damage from high winds including downed utility poles and power lines. Be prepared to seek alternate routes as some roads have been closed due to blockage."
You can find out more on area closings by visiting the WBTA Web site.
Attica and Wyoming central schools are closed this morning as a result of the fierce weather, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer.
We've also got power outages in the area: some 73 folks are without electricity in and around Alexander, and another 65 are in the dark in Darien. Wires have come down on Dewey Road in the town of Batavia. No outages yet reported in that region.
We're in for an ugly cocktail of dangerous weather today. Right now, Batavia is under three separate warnings, issued by the National Weather Service. Ice floes and warm temperatures look to flood the Tonwanda Creek. Winds of sustained gusts at 40 mph are whipping up to 70 mph at times. And, just for good measure, we've got a snow storm.
On the flood:
The flood warning continues for the Tonawanda Creek at Batavia from this morning to tonight. At 5:00 a.m. Thursday the stage was 72 feet and rising. Minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 9.0 feet... The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this morning and crest near 9.2 feet this afternoon.... At the 9.0 flood stage: Flood protection at Chestnut Street Bridge begins to be toppd. There is also flooding in Kibbe Park area of Batavia.
On the wind:
Deep low pressure will pass by to our north today. Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will gust as high as 70 mph during the day today. The powerful winds will become more westerly this afternoon then will gradually diminish tonight.
Shallow rooted trees, namely pines, will be especially vulnerable in this event as their shallow root system has become less stable with the thawing of the previously frozen ground. The added weight from several inches of wind blown wet snow will likely increase the potential for some downed tree limbs and power lines.
On the snow:
A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6:00 p.m. this afternoon.
Cold, moist air filtering in behind a departing low will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the area today. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected tonight. Strong winds will add to the problems and generate very poor visibility at times and make it difficult to keep roadways clear.
Things do not look pretty out at the Thruway right now. Please be safe.
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