jobs

Genesee County's unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent for September, is the lowest percentage it's been in 2020 but still significantly higher than its seasonal rate a year ago.

In August rate 2019, the rate was 3.4 percent.

Since the pandemic hit the economy, the local employment rate has been:

• April, 14.4 percent
• May, 10.1 percent
• June, 9.5 percent
• July, 10.5 percent
• August, 8 percent

The lowest rate prior to September was in February and March at 4.9 percent. The pandemic-related job losses started in March but those job losses didn't start to show up in official statistics until April.

There are 28,900 county residents counted in the labor force. A year ago, there were 29,900 people in the local labor force.

Of those currently in the labor force (people who are employed or are actively looking for work), 27,500 have jobs. There are 1,400 looking for work.

For September, there were 21,200 non-farm jobs in Genesee County compared to 23,000 a year ago. Of those, 15,700 are in the private sector (compared to 17,400 a year ago).

While the size of Genesee County's labor force shows a significant drop for August, some of this explained by normal seasonal fluctuations, says Tammy Marino, a labor analyst for the Department of Labor.

The labor force expands in the summer with students taking on jobs and for the season. This year, many college-age workers returned to campuses earlier than usual.

The August labor force for Genesee County was 29,800, down from 30,300 the month before, and down from 30,200 the year before.

Marino noted that the August number is close to the spring number. In May, the local labor force contained 29,500 workers.

There are also people who have dropped out of the labor force for various reasons, Marino said.

"There are many factors that influence people’s decision to (not) participate in the labor force," Marino said. "No child care, fear of the virus, a need to take care of a sick relative, etc. Also, long-term trends come into play here as well, a general aging of the population overall has resulted in a shrinking labor force in recent years."

There are 27,400 people with jobs living in the county, down from 29,200 a year ago. There are 2,400 people who are out of work but looking for an appropriate job, up from 1,000 a year ago.

That puts the August unemployment rate at 8.1 percent. In August of 2019, it was 3.5 percent.

Since the start of the pandemic the monthly unemployment rate has been:

• April: 14.4 percent
• May: 10.1 percent
• June: 9.5 percent
• July: 10.5 percent
• August: 8.1 percent

The September estimate has not yet been released.

Genesee County's unemployment rate is back over 10 percent for July after a small dip to 9.5 percent in June.

The 2020 rate of 10.6 percent is 7 percentage points higher than it was a year ago.

Genesee County's unemployment rate had mostly stay between 6 percent and 3 percent, depending on the time of year, going back to 2015, and then the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hit and many people started to shelter in place at the same time the government severely restricted business activity.  

In March, the month the first lockdown orders were issued, the county's unemployment rate was 4.9 percent. In April, it jumped to 14.4 percent, then fell to 10.1 percent in May.

A year ago in July, it was 3.5 percent.

One big factor in the local unemployment numbers is the county's largest seasonal employer, Darien Lake Theme Park, has not been allowed to reopen. The park employs more than 1,000 people every summer.

Another significant local employer that remains closed is Batavia Downs, which this time of year would have at least 450 people on the workforce.

There are currently 3,200 work-eligible people living in Genesee County who do not have jobs. A year ago, there were 1,100 people looking for work who reported they couldn't find a job that suited their qualifications.

At the hight of the previous recession. the high July number for unemployed people was 2,400.

After hitting an unprecedented 14.4 percent in April, Genesee County's unemployment rate fell sharply for May, dropping to 10.1 percent.

That is a level more in line with the area unemployment rate at the depth of the great recession when unemployment topped out at an even 10 percent January and February of 2010.

Of course, the May 2020 unemployment rate is much higher than the 3.4 percent of a year ago.

At the same time, there are also more people participating in the workforce in Genesee County than a year ago, an increase of 200 workers who either have employment or are seeking employment, from 29,300 to 29,500.

The total number of local residents considered unemployed is 3,000, compared to 1,000 a year ago, 4,200 a month ago, and 1,400 two months ago.

The state's unemployment rate is 14.2 percent, up from 3.6 percent a year ago, and the U.S. unemployment rate 13 percent. Nationally, it was 3.4 percent a year ago in May.