economy

Genesee County Manager Jay Gsell told WBTA's Dan Fischer that the potentially drastic cuts being talked about by Gov. David Paterson at the state level should have only a "minimal" impact on the proposed county budget for next year. The governor's plan for cutting spending involves mostly reductions to proposed increases, which wouldn't interfere much with the county finances.

In other news, congratulations are in order for Ed Leising of Batavia who was recently awarded the 2008 Health and Humanitarian Award by the Jerome Foundation and the United Memorial Medical Center Foundation. Dan Fischer tells us that Leising was "recognized for his charity work as a member of the Batavia Rotary Club" and because of his volunteer work with the hospital and other organizations.

A pair of articles in the Buffalo News this morning has bleak and bleaker pronouncements to make on the upstate economy as we head into the holiday season. While economists have yet to declare the big 'R' word at the national level, researchers at one local university have no trouble making such a statement about our own home turf. From one article: "University at Buffalo researchers are declaring a recession in New York."

Not only have we taken off with a head start, but it looks like we'll be huffing and puffing out on the track field of troubled economies even after the nation has made its laps and gone:

“Given that the current decline has been precipitated by the implosion of the real estate bubble that created a serious financial crisis for major Wall Street investment banks and insurance companies, New York state’s economy is again likely to be hit harder than the national economy,” said Isaac Ehrlich, a UB economist. Wall Street accounts for about 20 percent of the state’s tax revenues.

In another article, picked up from the Associated Press, holiday job seekers are found to be too many for too few open slots.

The odds of landing a part-time job at department store operator Bealls Outlet Stores this holiday season are slimmer than getting into Harvard University: It’s one out of every 45.

It's much the same across the nation. In California, one 7-Eleven received more than 100 applicants in a week for a position that pays $8.50 per hour.

The national trends are being borne out locally as department store, convenience chain and call center managers who only a year ago had to scramble to fill holiday jobs are seeing a surge in the number of seasoned applicants — many of them laid off in other sectors and desperate for a way to pay the bills.

That was the case with Tracey Gibbs, a Buffalo resident who landed seasonal work at keepsake store Things Remembered in the Boulevard Mall. She said last month that she accepted a seasonal job because full-time positions were scarce.

What have you seen here locally? A few weeks back, the Daily News published a handful of stories on the economy that all sounded the note of cautious optimism. Since then, it seems things have only gotten worse. We've heard about troubles with several downtown businesses, and whether that's linked to the general economic downturn or not, it doesn't bode well. Are you a local retailer? Have you seen more applicants than usual looking for a part-time holiday gig? Have you cut back your positions?

Fire hydrants in the village of Oakfield will be flushed starting Monday and ending on Friday of next week, according to WBTA's Wayne Fuller.

Seventy workers at the Fisher-Price facility in East Aurora may soon be out of a job. The company, run by Mattel, plans to cut 1,000 jobs across the nation due to "the economic slowdown." About 900 people are employed at the facility in East Aurora.

Yesterday, Alice announced the formation of Green Businesses for Alice, a bipartisan group of green business representatives from Western New York who are supporting her candidacy. The group is the result of Alice's work in the community bringing these businesses together, showing the leadership skills we will need to help us realize the promise of the green economy and encourage the growth of small businesses.

Local businessman Andrew McLellan, who runs Environmental Education Associates, commented: "During her campaign she's reached out to green businesses across our community, and her efforts to bring us together have served as a catalyst for the formation of an ongoing association of green businesses that will work to bring good-paying jobs here to the district and help us take advantage of the growing green economy."

Alice is already taking steps to make her policy goals a reality once she is elected. For too long we've had politicians who seem more concerned with empty talking points than with getting things done. Alice is the only candidate in this race to put out real plans on how she'll lower taxes, bring jobs to the area, and encourage the growth of small businesses. That's the kind of leadership we need in Washington.

Anne Wadsworth

Kryzan for Congress

www.kryzanforcongress.org 

WBTA's Dan Fischer reports this morning that as some of the nation's largest financial institutions have floundered in recent weeks, upsate financiers Tompkins Financial Corp. have reported record earnings. Reported third-quarter earnings for the parent company of Tompkins Insurance and Bank of Castile are up 16 percent over last year's figures. A statement issued by the company cites their "high standards for risk management" as one of the reasons for the solid performance in tough times.

In other news, the Genesee County Legislature tabled a decision to purchase 238 acres in the town of Pembroke. Such a decision would permit the county to borrow up to $5 million for the purchase that would use the land for economic development. All that was said of the measure was that "we need more time," and most of the discussion was had during an executive session.

On the Anderson Cooper 360 blog, Dee Davis, found and president of the Center for Rural Strategies writes:

Nobody is going to bail out rural America. No matter how bad things get, there is never going to be $700 billion of stop loss or reinvestment or economic stimulus for the countryside. Government is going to be there to look after besotted financiers in $5,000 suits and Gucci loafers a long time before it notices small town folks struggling to feed their families or gas up to get to work.

But that doesn’t mean that the Countryside can’t help us out of this mess. When the credit crisis abates and the debts of all the profligates have been forgiven, the nation will still have some tough choices. Will we rev up the same economic machine, built on the notion of cheap fossil fuel and limitless consumption, or will we shoot for something a little more sustainable? If it is the latter, rural communities have something to offer.

And here's his ideas:

• Localize food systems so we support area farmers more and global transportation less,
• Seek more sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based fertilizer and pesticide production agriculture,
• Open up the power grid so locally scaled and more environmentally sound approaches to power generation can compete for market share ,
• Cap carbon emissions so that we begin to acknowledge the hidden costs of pollution and monetize the value of rural expanses where the sky is still clean,
• Invest in clean, renewable fuels that we can create in the American countryside.
• And rethink the inevitability of endless suburban sprawl built on housing speculation, loosey-goosey credit markets, and the expectation of cheap gasoline.

One thing to give Alice Kryzan credit for is she's talking a lot about Western New York playing a role in a new green economy. That isn't wacky thinking, but I wonder how it can happen without a concerted local effort.  This isn't really the kind of thing Kryzan (or Lee) can do for us at the Federal level. It's the kind of thing we must do for ourselves.

(link via The Rural Blog)

(The photo above was taken Friday in LeRoy.)

Republican Mike Ranzenhofer and Democrat Joe Mesi squared off on WBEN's Hardline with Hardwick Sunday in the only live debate between the two candidates who are vying to replace the retiring incumbent Mary Lou Rath in the 61st Senate District.

Unfortunately, that debate does not yet seem available online. Did anyone tune in? What was your impression?

The Buffalo News had this to say:

The real focus of the 90-minute debate was Buffalo Sabres owner B. Thomas Golisano, who Ranzenhofer accused of illegally campaigning for Mesi through the Responsible New York political committee and its administrator— G. Steven Pigeon.

Ranzenhofer, a veteran member of the County Legislature, said he saw Pigeon and Mesi “joined at the hip” at about 40 campaign events earlier this year before Pigeon, the former Erie County Democratic chairman, signed on as point man for Golisano’s $5 million fund — required by law to be independent of any campaign.

“Steve Pigeon is the single person in charge of the Golisano money. It’s clear that Pigeon is directing the money and the message of the Mesi campaign,” Ranzenhofer said. “As a candidate, you have to know the difference between right and wrong, stand up and say that this is wrong and not take the money.”

Mesi, however, denied that he is participating in anything illegal.

Mesi's campaign sent out a news release the very minute that the debate wrapped up proclaiming: "Mesi Wins Debate!" His camp had this to say:

Mesi outlined his credible plans to lower property taxes and cut down Albany’s bloated budget.  He also discussed how he plans to bring good-paying jobs back to Western New York to give our young people more opportunities here at home. ...

The proposals of Mike Ranzenhofer (Mesi’s Republican opponent) were exposed as shallow efforts that would hurt Western New York.  Estimates show that Ranzenhofer’s “sledgehammer” budget cuts would take $210 million out of Western New York economy, eliminate 1,607 local jobs and do irreparable damage to our community's strengths, especially our local colleges and research centers.

Had anyone heard Mesi's plans on how to bring jobs back? Nothing specific is mentioned in the news release. In the Buffalo News article, it's said that: "He said he would try to protect workers with necessary jobs and would reform programs like Empire Zones and industrial development agencies to save money instead."

I don't follow here. Not sure what "protect workers with necessary jobs" means. What is a necessary job? How do you protect it? What about people whose jobs are not necessary? Who decides that? Reform of the Empire Zone program and the industrial development agencies to save money sounds like a fine idea, but how? How is money saved? As far as I understand, IDAs are not publicly funded. What would such reform entail?

Ranzenhofer was scheduled to come by The Batavian office this morning for a video interview. Unfortunately, he cancelled. We're doing our best to reschedule. Mesi is due in on Wednesday. We will still take questions to consider asking the candidates, if you have them.

A brief aside: The "sledgehammer" budget cuts comment reminds me of the Saturday Night Live skit—I linked to it in a comment last Friday—that mocked the final presidential debate. In it, the mock Barak Obama says that he will make cuts "with a scalpel not a hatchet," while the mock John McCain vows to use a "scalpel, a hatchet and a magical plunger." Ha!

What a difference a week makes... Last Monday's Daily News featured three front-page articles on the cautious optimism of local retailers, consumers and financiers about the eventual rebounding of the economy and return of "people's desire to shop." Today's top story—a wire story picked up from the Associated Press—proclaims: "High anxiety on economy: Magnitude of financial meltdown starting to hit people hard." Ouch! Nothing cautious or optimistic there.

From today's report:

The share of people who believe the country is moving in the right direction has plunged in just a few weeks, from 28 percent in September to 15 percent in October. ...

At the same time there is a drop in those surveyed who say they are happy about the way things are going in their lives.

One-third of people are "worried about losing their jobs," half don't think they can keep up with bills—mortgages and credit cards, in particular—and two-thirds of those surveyed said that their investments were losing value.

Where are you at? Do you fit into the cautiously optimistic picture sketched in last week's articles? Or are you pulling your hair out in worry?

In other news, a standoff in Le Roy kept police there busy for two hours Friday night and into Saturday morning. A Darien man is accused of setting fires in an apartment, attempting to kill a woman there and slashing at a police officer with a knife. Jonathan J. Connolly, 30, of Darien, was charged with seven felonies. Connolly eventually had to be taken down with a taser gun. Reporter Scott DeSmit has all the details on this incident featured in today's local section.

We encourage you to pick up a copy of the Daily News at your local newsstand. Or, better yet, subscribe at BataviaNews.com.

It's all about the economy today in the Daily News. Hardworking reporter Joanne Beck logged no less than three front page stories today, all with a local look at how the current economic crisis is hitting home for folks in Batavia.

In one article, Beck chats with some downtown business owners about how they're faring "despite the recent stock market collapse." Chris Ariyaratnam, owner of the Main Street beauty salon Mane Attraction, told Beck that shoppers aren't "going to cut back."

"They're starting their Christmas shopping now," [said Ariyaratnam]. "I think they'll spend the same, but I think it will take longer. I think it's going to be OK."

Beck found much of the same mood among other downtown retailers and restaurateurs. Maybe they're not stocking as much, but their expectations of a good season are high.

In another article, "consumers" are given their turn to be optimistic despite the ongoing financial crises. Sherrity DiSanto told Beck:

"Short-term, I'm worried. But long-term, I think it will be picking itself back up. With gas prices going down and some sales, people's desire to shop will come back."

The optimism keeps on rolling in Beck's third article on the economy, in which she gets the advice of Dave Chua, a financial adviser with the Legend Group, "a retirement planning and investment company." Chua urges people to "remain still with where you are" and know that "it won't last forever." In particular, people looking for some extra cash shouldn't just dip into their retirement account. They should "explore other options."

Meanwhile, a wire story picked up from the Associated Press reads: "Debt clock out of digits." Apparently, it couldn't fit the "1" to indicate the nearly $10.2 trillion in national debt. Good news, though. We'll get a new clock in 2009 that "will be able to track debt up to a quadrillion dollars, which is a "1" followed by 15 zeros."

We encourage you to pick up a copy of the Daily News at your local newsstand. Or, better yet, subscribe at BataviaNews.com.

Are you ready for higher heating bills this winter?

The D&C reports that natural gas heating is expected to be 18 percent higher this season.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected this week that Americans who heat with natural gas will pay an average of 18 percent more this winter than last.

In the Rochester region, where natural gas is the most common fuel for heating, this would mean the average consumer would pay $274 a month for a total of $1,370 from November through March, up more than $200 for the season.

Do you have conservation tips to share?

I think we'll be burning more wood.

Economist William G. Cheney stopped in Batavia yesterday to tell folks to calm down about the incessant, emphatic, sky-is-falling bad news about the national economy, according to the Daily News. Reporter Scott DeSmit does a great job with this article, drawing out some of the seeming contradictions between the advice (everything is just fine) and the market performance that is signalling real and serious decline. Here's the lede:

One of the nation's leading economists was in Batavia ... attempting to allay fears about financial markets just as Wall Street took another beating, dropping more than 4 percent and sending world markets into further turmoil.

Hmm. How about this:

"I still haven't given up," Cheney [said]. "It still doesn't feel like an honest-to-goodness recession. Outside of the housing market, the economy is generating growth."

Still, he said, the financial events of the last month are like nothing he's ever seen.

Come again? Does anyone sense a mixed message here? DeSmit qualifies Cheney as the chief economist for John Hancock Financial Services in Boston—for more than 20 years—and an Oxford-educated economist.

Check out the article by DeSmit. It's a good read.

In other news... Lorie Longhany was elected as the new chairperson of the Genesee County Democratic Committee by a vote of 31-7, according to the Daily News. Longhany, of Le Roy, was previously the the vice-chair of the group. The term is two years. She is an art teacher.

We encourage you to pick up a copy of the Daily News at your local newsstand. Or, better yet, subscribe at BataviaNews.com.

High oil prices are pushing refinery upgrades and expansion, which is good news to Batavia-based Graham Corp. Its revenue and profits are soaring, reports the Buffalo News.

Graham is coming off a fiscal year where profits and sales were the highest ever by a wide margin. The company’s stock, which traded for just over $10 in January 2007, now stands at $89.

And Graham’s order backlog and new order bookings are running at a record pace, prompting Lines to predict that the company’s growth spurt is far from over, with sales expected to rise by another 15 percent to 20 percent during the fiscal year that began in March. That would push revenues to around $100 million for the first time ever.

The article indicates that Graham is continuing to expand its work force, at home and aboard.