A flood watch for the area has been issued by the National Weather Service. It's in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.
There's expected to be a significant warm up, climbing to near 50 degrees, with some rain on Saturday. The flood watch includes a portion of Western New York, including these counties: Allegany, Cattaraugus, Genesee, Livingston and Wyoming.
A period of steady rain along with significant snow melt from notably warmer weather will present the risk for ice jam flooding. Ice jams are already apparent on many area rivers and creeks. Once runoff increases on Saturday, the potential for flooding near these ice jams will increase.
The alert explains:
"High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will drift off the New England Coast tonight and Friday. The return flow around the departing fair weather system will circulate much warmer air northward from the Ohio Valley. The southerly flow will become enhanced Friday night and Saturday when a deepening storm will lift from the Southern Plains across the Upper Great Lakes. The very mild southerly flow will also include plenty of moisture. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes storm will sweep across New York State and interact with the enriched moisture supply to produce a period of steady rain.
"The combination of the steady rain along with temperatures that are forecast to climb to near 50 should result in significant runnoff with significant rises likely on area tributaries. Plenty of ice is also in place in the creeks...and the primary risk for flodding will be from ice jams. A flood watch is in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon."
