We could see as much as five inches pile up by dinner time tonight. The National Weather Service out of Buffalo has issued a lake effect snow advisory for the region until 6 o'clock this evening. From the advisory:

Bands of lake effect snow will persist through the day. New accumulations in the most persistent bands will be in the 3 to 5 inch range. Brisk west to northwest winds will also lead to areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities.

In lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be travelling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions.

There's not much to see out on the radar so far.

However, things look a little greasy out on the Thruway.

We may be in the clear for any further threats of severe wind damage for Genesee County, but Batavia is still under watch for a flooding of Tonawanda Creek. This is a clip of the roiling creek that looked set to swell up and over its banks earlier this afternoon out back of the county court house.

From the National Weather Service:

The flood warning continues for the Tonawanda Creek at Batavia until Friday afternoon. At 12:00 p.m. Thursday, the stage was 9.5 feet and rising. Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 9.0 feet. Forecast: The river will continue to rise and crest near 9.8 feet this evening. Impact: At 10.0 feet, moderate flood, minor to moderate flooding along the entire reach from Batavia to Tonawanda, most focused in Alabama swamps, rapids and northern Clarence and Amherst, and also in the city of Batavia, west of Main Street.

On the wind advisory:

Southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph this afternoon could gust over 45 mph. The greatest chance for the higher gusts will be found over elevated terrain. These winds will become more westerly during the course of this afternoon before diminishing late in the day.

While the threat of widespread wind damage has diminished, shallow rooted trees, namely pines, will still be vulnerable in this event as their shallow root system has become less stable with the thawing of the previously frozen ground. Scattered power outages will still be possible from downed tree limbs and power lines.

Roads around Genesee County are getting ever worse throughout the day today. Snow and rain have added to the already bloated mix of melted ice and snow from yesterday. Some roads are barely navigable at this time. Add to that the winds that are bringing down power lines across the region, and you've got a messy situation out there.

In the past half hour, we've heard of two reports of downed wires over the scanner.

Poles and wires have come down on Molasses Hill Road near Chaddock Road in Alexander. Another pole along with wires are blocking a roadway in Attica. We haven't yet got the report on that exact location, but crews are out trying to get things cleaned up as quickly as possible.

Conditions are even worse in Wyoming County, where the winds are whipping even more fiercely. Dan Fischer reports that the office of emergency management there has put out a general travel advisory for motorists. It reads: "Caution should be used when traveling in Wyoming Co. due to damage from high winds including downed utility poles and power lines. Be prepared to seek alternate routes as some roads have been closed due to blockage."

You can find out more on area closings by visiting the WBTA Web site.

Attica and Wyoming central schools are closed this morning as a result of the fierce weather, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer.

We've also got power outages in the area: some 73 folks are without electricity in and around Alexander, and another 65 are in the dark in Darien. Wires have come down on Dewey Road in the town of Batavia. No outages yet reported in that region.

We're in for an ugly cocktail of dangerous weather today. Right now, Batavia is under three separate warnings, issued by the National Weather Service. Ice floes and warm temperatures look to flood the Tonwanda Creek. Winds of sustained gusts at 40 mph are whipping up to 70 mph at times. And, just for good measure, we've got a snow storm.

On the flood:

The flood warning continues for the Tonawanda Creek at Batavia from this morning to tonight. At 5:00 a.m. Thursday the stage was 72 feet and rising. Minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 9.0 feet... The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this morning and crest near 9.2 feet this afternoon.... At the 9.0 flood stage: Flood protection at Chestnut Street Bridge begins to be toppd. There is also flooding in Kibbe Park area of Batavia.

On the wind:

Deep low pressure will pass by to our north today. Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will gust as high as 70 mph during the day today. The powerful winds will become more westerly this afternoon then will gradually diminish tonight.

Shallow rooted trees, namely pines, will be especially vulnerable in this event as their shallow root system has become less stable with the thawing of the previously frozen ground. The added weight from several inches of wind blown wet snow will likely increase the potential for some downed tree limbs and power lines.

On the snow:

A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6:00 p.m. this afternoon.

Cold, moist air filtering in behind a departing low will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the area today. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected tonight. Strong winds will add to the problems and generate very poor visibility at times and make it difficult to keep roadways clear.

Things do not look pretty out at the Thruway right now. Please be safe.

We spied this snowman built up out front of T-shirts Etc. on Main Street Batavia earlier today and thought to take a photo.

Let's call this a challenge to all Main Street merchants. Bring out your snowmen!

Driving along Main Street this afternoon, it dawned on me that I couldn't see some of the shopping plazas I normally pass by on my drive between Clinton Street Road and Center Street. Well, they were still there, only they were blocked by the mounds of snow like walls stacked high at the front of the parking lots. Down near Masse Place, in fact, you can't see any of the shops from the street. This is all you're going to see:

So this got me wondering: Where's the tallest snow mound in Batavia? This one looks like it could fit the bill, but I haven't been everywhere.

Punxsutawney Phil climbed out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob yesterday to find his shadow and thus predict for us another six weeks of winter. From the Washington Post:

According to legend, if a hibernating animal wakes up and casts a shadow on Feb. 2, winter will last six more weeks. If there is no shadow, spring will supposedly come early.

Early American farmers relied on groundhogs, though there is no scientific evidence that the animal has any weather-predicting skills.

What do you think?

After getting caught in the snow four times during our last blizzard, I figured driving was not an option. Who in their right mind is going to drive around in this?

Apparently a lot of people are doing just that as Main St. had its usual mid-day traffic and was cleaned up for the most part.

Well I decided to get all bundled up and go for a walk. Dumb idea.

I took a trip around my part of the city, walking around two different blocks, and it was brutal. The weather is 32-degrees right now, so it wasn't the cold that was the problem. It was the snow coming down in such a burdensome manner. 

I'm guessing that if you get outside of the city and are driving on Rt. 63 or 19, you are in for a lot of whiteout conditions as there is a slight wind in the city, which means when you get out you are in trouble.

This isn't that light snow that is nice to see once in a while. This is the big flake, heavy, pain in the butt type of snow.  I am so happy that my neighbor has a big snow plow and is a good guy or I would be in trouble today. I still can't lift heavy stuff after the carpal tunnel surgeries over the summer and I have a feeling that it would kill me to have to clear that stuff out on my own.

So I noticed a few things on my walk. First is that moving during the winter sucks. I found a guy moving in on Montclair Ave. and let's just say these aren't the ideal conditions. 

In fact, he tried to move the moving truck so that the plow could get down the street, and the battery had died. He found somebody and was getting a jump as I decided to head towards Main St.

I understand the sidewalks on the side streets being bad because people are at work. I just walked down the road. But I watched the mail carrier walking through big piles of snow and struggling just to get to people's mail boxes.

And then I got to Main St. and the sidewalks were just as bad.

I made a left and walked towards Burger King and Arby's - which were both pretty slow for a mid-afternoon on a work day - and the sidewalks were clear in some places and not even touched in others. I thought the city owned some big machine that is supposed to drive around and clear of sidewalks?

How about getting that thing out on Main St.

I could hear the speaker at Ken Barrett's  calling for service, but none of the cars were cleared off and nobody was shopping for a car. I get it. There is no way to get a feel for a vehicle when you can't drive faster than like 15 miles per hour.

I really was surprised at the amount of people out there driving because it is nasty out and probably will be for the rest of the afternoon. 

I saw a few people out shoveling and plowing driveways, but most of those that work during the day looked like they went in because driveways were packed all over the place.

As I was walking down Oak St., I saw a guy riding a bicycle down the road. He wasn't moving very fast and I can't imagine it was a pleasurable trip. I've never understood those that ride bikes when the weather is like this.

Finally I got home. What would usually be a 45 minute trip around a couple blocks took nearly and hour and half, but I did stop and talk to a few folks out there clearing their driveways and walking places.

The most common complaint I heard was the lack of cleared out sidewalks. If anybody knows about how the city handles sidewalks, I'd love to hear it.

I finally got home and was able to sit down at my computer, after a change of clothing because I looked like a snowman.

Snowfall has gained some force over the past hour here in downtown Batavia. The flakes are bigger, there are more of them and they're falling faster.

A winter storm warning issued by the National Weather Service out of Buffalo will remain in effect until about 11 o'clock tonight, although this should be the worst of it.

Moderate to heavy snow will bring difficult travel to western New York through this evening. Steady snow will continue today into early this evening before tapering off later this evening.

Snowfall rates may reach around 1 inch per hour during bursts of heavier snowfall today. Storm total accumulations are expected to reach 8 to 10 inches by late this evening.

Here's a look at conditions on Main Street in Batavia, outside our office. This video was taken shortly before 11 o'clock this morning.

We're in the midst of it, now. It looks like we've so far collected maybe a couple inches of snow overnight, but this storms system has us blanketed like a croissant around a cocktail weiner.

Most meteorologists tell us that the worst is yet to come. Expect the snow to turn heavy later this morning, after 9 o'clock, and remain so right up through the afternoon. We do not yet have word of any school closures in the area.

Right now... it doesn't look too bad. It doesn't look fun, but not like anything we haven't tackled before. Here's how things stand on the Thruway at the Batavia exit. Please take it slow out there.

Most of the folks who have taken our poll so far today are in agreement that "maybe" we will get a couple inches of snow overnight tonight. In fact, it's an overwhelming 76 percent of poll-takers who feel that way right now. That "maybe" attitude may change a little bit, however. The National Weather Service has upgraded their winter storm watch to a warning, and it sounds like we could get "slammed" over the next 24 hours.

The warning goes into effect tonight at 11:00pm, through to 11:00pm Wednesday night, although it sounds like overnight and tomorrow morning will be the worst of it. So plan for a tricky commute. Here are the details:

Moderate to heavy snow will bring difficult travel to the western New York tonight through Wednesday evening. Snow is expected to overspread the region by around or shortly after midnight, with periods of snow continuing through Wednesday evening. The snow may be heavy at times, especially late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Storm total accumulations are expected to reach 8 to 10 inches by late Wednesday evening.

Meteorologists are holding true to their winter storm watch, still expecting the massive system now sweeping up from Ohio to hit hard tonight—check out our post from this morning. Although, initial predictions of up to a foot of snow for the region have already been eased. We're know expecting between five and eight inches of snowfall. Still, looking at this thing, there seems a chance that it could just sail right by us, never lifting north enough to cause any damage.

Last year, if I remember correctly, there were about a half dozen "major" snow storms that were predicted that never came to pass. Are we looking at another flop, or should be all be picking up our shovels?

A winter storm watch first issued yesterday evening is still in effect for tonight and tomorrow. Initial predictions were between 6 to 12 inches of snowfall.

From the National Weather Service out of Buffalo:

A storm system tracking northeast from the southern plains could bring a significant general snowfall to the area tonight and Wednesday. Some uncertainty still exists on the exact path the storm system will take, and therefore the amount of snowfall which may occur. Probabilities remain high enough that significant snowfall may occur to maintain the winter storm watch.

Again, here's a look at this storm right now. As you can easily see: it's enormous, stretching from Dallas to Philadelphia. It looks as if the real threat is the mass of snow currently creeping up through Ohio. Maybe we'll get lucky, and it will drift on by south of us.

A storm system creeping over the midwest could hit our region Tuesday night and bring up to a foot of snow. The National Weather Service out of Buffalo has issued a winter storm watch, in effect beginning tomorrow night.

A storm system tracking northeast from from Texas has the potential of producing a widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The heaviest amounts are likely to be across the Southern Tier counties. It is still too early to be certain of these amounts. Remember, this is just a watch at this time. Warnings or advisories will be issued when we are more certain.

A watch is essentially the first alarm in the storm prediction business, so don't go warming up the generator yet.

Here's what we may have to look forward to—now looming ominously in the form of a wintry mix over Oklahoma and into Missouri.

We've got a winter weather advisory in effect until noon today. From the National Weather Service out of Buffalo:

Patchy freezing drizzle will be found across the region into the late morning hours. The freezing drizzle will likely produce a very light glaze on untreated surfaces, with the greatest potential for trouble being found on sidewalks.

Temperatures will lift throughout the day, and we may even get up above freezing.

Here's a look at the current Thruway conditions:

A wind chill advisory for the region has been extended through today up until about 11 o'clock Saturday morning. Temperatures with the wind chill could drop as low as 20 degrees below zero this morning and overnight, according to the National Weather Service out of Buffalo. Right now it feels like about 14 degrees below zero, and it may not get any worse than that as long as the winds hold steady.

And of course: more snow. From the National Weather Service:

Bitterly cold wind chill values with significant lake effect snows east of the lakes through Friday night.

A frigid arctic airmass will remain in place across all of western and north central New York through at least Saturday morning. Temperatures during this period will average some 15 degrees below normal.

In addition to the bitterly cold wind chills, winds will be aligned well enough for organized lake effect snow east of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Some areas could see storm totals close to 2 feet.

Anyone else catch that: "a frigid arctic airmass." Doesn't sound friendly.

A look at the radar shows that most of this snow will be south and east of us, maybe reaching Attica and Warsaw, and well north on the Lake Ontario shoreline. For now and for the rest of the morning, at least.

Scenes similar to this clean up yesterday at the site of a head-on collision on Clinton Street Road in the city have been common over the past few days. Below zero temperatures have kept the road salt from doing its work and frequent snowfalls have kept the plows more than busy.

In response, the city of Batavia police have issued a statement urging motorists to drive cautiously and maybe drive a little more slowly than they normally would.

In the past 24 hours the Batavia Police Department has investigated about 15 motor vehicle accidents. Only a few resulted in minor injuries. With the extreme cold weather conditions and the snow we have received, the city streets remain slippery and icy especially at intersections. Even after being treated, the intersections and streets become icy quickly with the near zero temperatures we are experiencing.
 
We are asking all drivers in the city to use extreme caution and to slow down, especially when approaching intersections.

This morning may not be too bad here in Batavia... But that wasn't the case in Rochester when I left shortly before 7 o'clock this morning. A few inches of snow had already accumulated and more was falling. Streets were greasy and driving slow almost all the way down I-490 to Bergen. So be careful if you're heading in that direction today in your commute.

As for the rest of the day: cold. We're at about 9 degrees right now and could see a low of zero! Yikes. Fortunately, we will not see significant wind until later this evening into tomorrow. In fact, a wind chill warning is in effect from 4:00am until noon tomorrow.

The National Weather Service out of Buffalo warns us that wind chills could dip as low as 20 to 25 degrees below zero. As if that isn't enough:

In addition to the very cold wind chills, winds (will) become well enough aligned later today and tonight for bands of heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Erie. Warnings will remain in place for southern Erie County and also Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

Here's a look out at the Thruway interchange in Batavia right now: