weather

Attica and Wyoming central schools are closed this morning as a result of the fierce weather, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer.

We've also got power outages in the area: some 73 folks are without electricity in and around Alexander, and another 65 are in the dark in Darien. Wires have come down on Dewey Road in the town of Batavia. No outages yet reported in that region.

We're in for an ugly cocktail of dangerous weather today. Right now, Batavia is under three separate warnings, issued by the National Weather Service. Ice floes and warm temperatures look to flood the Tonwanda Creek. Winds of sustained gusts at 40 mph are whipping up to 70 mph at times. And, just for good measure, we've got a snow storm.

On the flood:

The flood warning continues for the Tonawanda Creek at Batavia from this morning to tonight. At 5:00 a.m. Thursday the stage was 72 feet and rising. Minor flooding is forecast. Flood stage is 9.0 feet... The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this morning and crest near 9.2 feet this afternoon.... At the 9.0 flood stage: Flood protection at Chestnut Street Bridge begins to be toppd. There is also flooding in Kibbe Park area of Batavia.

On the wind:

Deep low pressure will pass by to our north today. Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will gust as high as 70 mph during the day today. The powerful winds will become more westerly this afternoon then will gradually diminish tonight.

Shallow rooted trees, namely pines, will be especially vulnerable in this event as their shallow root system has become less stable with the thawing of the previously frozen ground. The added weight from several inches of wind blown wet snow will likely increase the potential for some downed tree limbs and power lines.

On the snow:

A winter weather advisory remains in effect until 6:00 p.m. this afternoon.

Cold, moist air filtering in behind a departing low will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the area today. Another 1 to 3 inches is expected tonight. Strong winds will add to the problems and generate very poor visibility at times and make it difficult to keep roadways clear.

Things do not look pretty out at the Thruway right now. Please be safe.

A flood watch has been issued for Genesee and Wyoming counties through Thursday evening. Ice jam flooding could break out on Tonawanda Creek.

From the National Weather Service out of Buffalo:

Ice jams were on Tonawanda Creek Tuesday near Varysburg and south of Attica. Warm temperatures and rainfall today will increase the flow on the creek and may cause the jams to move downstream. The higher water and ice will combine for a threat of flooding along the creek. With ice jams, flooding can happen at any time if the ice breaks loose and jams again. The flood threat of higher water will continue through Thursday.

A flash flood watch means the threat of flash flooding exists along rivers and creeks. If you are in the watch area, you should monitor weather conditions closely. Be ready to move to higher ground if flooding is observed or a warning is issued.

Just when you thought we were getting a break in our weather... Plan for a shaky commute Thursday morning. A high wind watch has been issued for the region from late tonight through Thursday.

From the National Weather Service:

A strong cold front will cross western New York after midnight tonight and be followed by strong westerly winds which will continue through much of Thursday. Sustained winds may reach 30 to 40 mph with some gusts topping 50 mph during Thursday morning and midday. The winds will gradually diminish during the afternoon. There is also the possibility of brief strong wind gusts just ahead of the cold front tonight.

A high wind watch means that the potential exists for strong damaging winds to develop. These strong winds could bring down trees and power lines as well as cause property damage. If a high wind warning is issued... stay inside... and away from windows. Be prepared for trees blocking roadways and power outages.

We don't yet know if things will turn severe enough for a high wind warning, but gusts topping 50 mph could do some damage. So please, be safe out there.

Driving along Main Street this afternoon, it dawned on me that I couldn't see some of the shopping plazas I normally pass by on my drive between Clinton Street Road and Center Street. Well, they were still there, only they were blocked by the mounds of snow like walls stacked high at the front of the parking lots. Down near Masse Place, in fact, you can't see any of the shops from the street. This is all you're going to see:

So this got me wondering: Where's the tallest snow mound in Batavia? This one looks like it could fit the bill, but I haven't been everywhere.

Punxsutawney Phil climbed out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob yesterday to find his shadow and thus predict for us another six weeks of winter. From the Washington Post:

According to legend, if a hibernating animal wakes up and casts a shadow on Feb. 2, winter will last six more weeks. If there is no shadow, spring will supposedly come early.

Early American farmers relied on groundhogs, though there is no scientific evidence that the animal has any weather-predicting skills.

What do you think?

Most of the folks who have taken our poll so far today are in agreement that "maybe" we will get a couple inches of snow overnight tonight. In fact, it's an overwhelming 76 percent of poll-takers who feel that way right now. That "maybe" attitude may change a little bit, however. The National Weather Service has upgraded their winter storm watch to a warning, and it sounds like we could get "slammed" over the next 24 hours.

The warning goes into effect tonight at 11:00pm, through to 11:00pm Wednesday night, although it sounds like overnight and tomorrow morning will be the worst of it. So plan for a tricky commute. Here are the details:

Moderate to heavy snow will bring difficult travel to the western New York tonight through Wednesday evening. Snow is expected to overspread the region by around or shortly after midnight, with periods of snow continuing through Wednesday evening. The snow may be heavy at times, especially late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Storm total accumulations are expected to reach 8 to 10 inches by late Wednesday evening.

Meteorologists are holding true to their winter storm watch, still expecting the massive system now sweeping up from Ohio to hit hard tonight—check out our post from this morning. Although, initial predictions of up to a foot of snow for the region have already been eased. We're know expecting between five and eight inches of snowfall. Still, looking at this thing, there seems a chance that it could just sail right by us, never lifting north enough to cause any damage.

Last year, if I remember correctly, there were about a half dozen "major" snow storms that were predicted that never came to pass. Are we looking at another flop, or should be all be picking up our shovels?

A winter storm watch first issued yesterday evening is still in effect for tonight and tomorrow. Initial predictions were between 6 to 12 inches of snowfall.

From the National Weather Service out of Buffalo:

A storm system tracking northeast from the southern plains could bring a significant general snowfall to the area tonight and Wednesday. Some uncertainty still exists on the exact path the storm system will take, and therefore the amount of snowfall which may occur. Probabilities remain high enough that significant snowfall may occur to maintain the winter storm watch.

Again, here's a look at this storm right now. As you can easily see: it's enormous, stretching from Dallas to Philadelphia. It looks as if the real threat is the mass of snow currently creeping up through Ohio. Maybe we'll get lucky, and it will drift on by south of us.

A storm system creeping over the midwest could hit our region Tuesday night and bring up to a foot of snow. The National Weather Service out of Buffalo has issued a winter storm watch, in effect beginning tomorrow night.

A storm system tracking northeast from from Texas has the potential of producing a widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The heaviest amounts are likely to be across the Southern Tier counties. It is still too early to be certain of these amounts. Remember, this is just a watch at this time. Warnings or advisories will be issued when we are more certain.

A watch is essentially the first alarm in the storm prediction business, so don't go warming up the generator yet.

Here's what we may have to look forward to—now looming ominously in the form of a wintry mix over Oklahoma and into Missouri.

We've got a winter weather advisory in effect until noon today. From the National Weather Service out of Buffalo:

Patchy freezing drizzle will be found across the region into the late morning hours. The freezing drizzle will likely produce a very light glaze on untreated surfaces, with the greatest potential for trouble being found on sidewalks.

Temperatures will lift throughout the day, and we may even get up above freezing.

Here's a look at the current Thruway conditions:

A wind chill advisory for the region has been extended through today up until about 11 o'clock Saturday morning. Temperatures with the wind chill could drop as low as 20 degrees below zero this morning and overnight, according to the National Weather Service out of Buffalo. Right now it feels like about 14 degrees below zero, and it may not get any worse than that as long as the winds hold steady.

And of course: more snow. From the National Weather Service:

Bitterly cold wind chill values with significant lake effect snows east of the lakes through Friday night.

A frigid arctic airmass will remain in place across all of western and north central New York through at least Saturday morning. Temperatures during this period will average some 15 degrees below normal.

In addition to the bitterly cold wind chills, winds will be aligned well enough for organized lake effect snow east of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Some areas could see storm totals close to 2 feet.

Anyone else catch that: "a frigid arctic airmass." Doesn't sound friendly.

A look at the radar shows that most of this snow will be south and east of us, maybe reaching Attica and Warsaw, and well north on the Lake Ontario shoreline. For now and for the rest of the morning, at least.

This morning may not be too bad here in Batavia... But that wasn't the case in Rochester when I left shortly before 7 o'clock this morning. A few inches of snow had already accumulated and more was falling. Streets were greasy and driving slow almost all the way down I-490 to Bergen. So be careful if you're heading in that direction today in your commute.

As for the rest of the day: cold. We're at about 9 degrees right now and could see a low of zero! Yikes. Fortunately, we will not see significant wind until later this evening into tomorrow. In fact, a wind chill warning is in effect from 4:00am until noon tomorrow.

The National Weather Service out of Buffalo warns us that wind chills could dip as low as 20 to 25 degrees below zero. As if that isn't enough:

In addition to the very cold wind chills, winds (will) become well enough aligned later today and tonight for bands of heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Erie. Warnings will remain in place for southern Erie County and also Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

Here's a look out at the Thruway interchange in Batavia right now:

Temperatures have settled at about 4 degrees, or nearly 30 degrees below freezing, in the Batavia area this morning. As a result, area police have cautioned motorists to be wary of black ice on the roads. Even those roads treated with salt have iced up in some spots, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer.

Fortunately, there's no significant wind to push that cold all the more insistently into our faces today. Unfortunately, that won't be the case tomorrow when more wind develops and could yank the temperature down near -17 degrees. Expect more of the same on Friday.

A well-written article this morning in the Buffalo News has some tips on how to get through the "deep freeze." For example: You may want to keep your water running just a little bit so that it doesn't freeze in the pipes.

We're looking at a severe winter weather advisory for the region from 9 o'clock this morning through 6:00pm this afternoon, issued by the National Weather Service out of Buffalo. Don't expect things to get more friendly after that. We're already hearing talk of record low temperatures possibly down to minus ten degrees by Thursday. For now, here's what to expect:

A strong cold front will cross western New York early this afternoon and bring 1 to 3 inches of snow to the area. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will shift to west with the frontal passage and gust up to 35 mph. This will result in considerable blowing and drfiting snow. Expect very hazardous conditions for travel for a few hours during the afternoon.

Please be careful driving out there. Wind, plus snow, plus cold usually make for the worst driving conditions. I can speak from experience that Route 33 between Batavia and Bergen is often treacherous when the gusts start kicking the snow across the road.

Everything looks clear right now on the Thruway.

 We were supposed to get slammed with some big-time snow last night. I woke up this morning with the ambition to go out and photograph some carnage.

It was actually pretty nice.

As you can see, most streets and driveways are clear and the only real damage I found was a power wire down.

Yet another good reason to stay in and watch the NFL playoffs - the weather is going to get pretty bad.

Things should get pretty nasty later this evening and through the night, according to weather.com. 

The snow is expected to start at around 3:45 p.m. and will get serious by 7 p.m. and will continue all through the night. 

Here is a copy of the Winter Weather Advisory issued by the National Weather Service this morning.

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR SO BY THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE STEADY TONIGHT AND ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES... BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW... BLOWING SNOW... SLEET... FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT... THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Fresh snow and heavy, gusting winds made for some slippery travel this morning, according to WBTA's Dan Fischer. A few area schools have been closed and Le Roy has delayed its start for two hours. Closings include: Attica, Alexander, Pavilion and Pembroke.

Many area schools are already delayed this morning to help give highway crews time to get the roads salted. Ice is the main problem right now. Wind will become the hazard this evening. As for the best news of all: expect more of it, throughout the day today.

A winter weather advisory issued yesterday by the National Weather Service that was supposed to run through 5:00pm today has been extended through the evening until 5:00am Thursday. From the advisory:

Freezing rain will produce very slipper conditions across the area this morning. A changeover to all snow and increasing westerly winds will make driving hazardous tonight.

Freezing rain will change to occasional rain and drizzle this morning. Additional ice accumulation of less than one tenth of an inch expected. Expect periods of snow tonight with 1 to 3 inches possible by Thursday morning. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are likely well south of Buffalo and Batavia. The snow will also be accompanied by westerly winds gusting up to 35 mphs at times.

Here's a look at conditions out on the Thruway at the Batavia interchange: